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RESEARCH

 

Social-related needs of people
in the Tsunami affected locations in Indonesia

A study of affected people in Banda Aceh.

20 July, 2005

 

 Understanding Elderly Vulnerability in Indonesia

 Community-Based support for the Elderly in Indonesia

 Pillars of the Family - Support provided by the Elderly

 East West Cente:
Population and Population Aging in Asia and Near East countries
Indonesia Emphasis

 An Aging World

 Facts and Figuress

 Links to selected reports and articles of interest
focusing on policies and programs on Aging

 

Population Pyramid Summary for Indonesia

 Ageing Trends and Policy Responses in the ESCAP Region

Quarterly statistical publication providing monthly statistics
for the assessment of demographic and economic trends
Sep 2004 - UNESCAP

Preparing for an Aging World

 

Some new wrinkles on global aging

Health, Wealth and the role of Institutions

WHO - Social and Health aspects of Aging
in Burma, Indonesia, North Korea, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, 1990

 

Population and Economic Dewvelopment in Indonesia

Caregivers Guide to Understanding Dimentia Behaviors

 Caregivers Guide to Medication and Aging

Caring for Adults with Cognitive and Memory Impairment

 Progress Report on Alzheimer Disease 2003

 

 

 

An aging Asia:
Demographic challenges
for government and business sectors in 2050

Within the next 50 years or so, the world will face a dramatic transformation as the main profile of the population shifted from younger profile to older one, particularly in Asia. The demographic forecast that the world population will age very dramatically will bring about far reaching ramifications.


In CSIS seminar titled: ‘Asia's population over the next 50 years: Implications for business and government’ in August 8, 2003, Dr Clive Edwards, Associate Professor in the School of Business, University of Queensland, explores the main demographic changes that would occur in Southeast Asian countries over the next 50 years. Present as discussants were Dr Mayling Oey-Gardiner, President Director, PT Insan Hitawasana Sejahtera, and Dr Djisman S. Simandjuntak, Executive Director, Prasetiya Mulya Business School. The seminar was moderated by Mr Arya B. Gaduh, researcher in Department of Economics, CSIS.

World Population Development to 2050

In the overall assessment of world population development, there will be continued substantial population growth and a major age structure change. Between 2000 and 2050, the world’s population rises from 6.1 billion to 9.6 billion, an increase of 57%. Over this 50 years, the population of Europe, North America, Japan rises just 7%, from 1.3 billion to 1.4 billion. Thus most of the rise in the world’s population that occurs between 2000 and 2050 occurs in the developing countries of the world: Asia, South America and Africa.


Asia’s population rises from 3.7 billion to 5.6 billion, an increase of 52%. South America’s population rises from 0.5 billion to 0.8 billion, an increase of 57%. Africa’s population over this period is projected to rise by a massive 143%, from 0.8 billion to 2.0 billion (the impact of AIDS is addressed in the recently released [2003] UN World Population Projection report).


Until now, the world’s population has always been ‘young’, with 44% of the world’s population being at the ages 0-19 years and less than 5% at ages 65+. That changes according to the 2050 forecast where those ages 0-19 is 24% and those ages 65+ 15%.

Age Structure Change in Southeast Asia

One of the main proposition of Dr Edwards’ presentation is that we are facing significant aging of the population throughout most of th ecountries in SEA region including Indonesia. The region’s population rises from 452.0 million in 2000 to 717.2 million in 2050, an increase of 265.2 million, or 59%.


Numbers at ages 0-34 rise just 9%, from 311 million to 339 million. Those aged 35+ rises from 141 million in 2000 to 378 million in 2050. Numbers at ages 35-64 rise from 120.7 million in 2000 to 269.2 million in 2050, an increase of 123%. Numbers at ages 65+ rise from 20.1 million in 2000 to 108.7 million in 2050, an increase of 440% in just 50 years.

Reliability of Demographic Forecast


The reliability of demographic forecast was also discussed by the speaker and both discussants. Although relatively more reliable than economic or political forecasts, the floor maintains that there are factors to be considered. Dr Mayling highlighted several of these factors. First is the source of information and its reliability. The international community in this sense often uses the UN statistical data. These data may be different to the ones in each country. Second is the necessity to establish solid basic assumptions. These basic assumptions include fertility assumptions, life expectancy assumptions, etc. Third, which was brought into attention by Dr Djisman Simandjuntak, is the possibility of external shocks, e.g. natural disaster, epidemic, famine, etc.

Opportunities and Challenges for Indonesia

Dr Edwards pointed out several challenges for the Indonesian government. The demographic shift will bring implications for government spending and government provision of basic services, e.g. education, health. Costs of medical care for people aged 35+ is considerably greater per individual than that of medical care for children. There are several opportunities addressed for the private sectors, which involve the private sectors capacity to accommodate such demographic shift through innovative business ventures.


Dr Djisman also raised the concerns over the ‘caring capacity of the earth’. The imbalance between resources and population and income will bring about serious consequences to Indonesia. The shifting economic structure will also raise the issues of income gap, employment, resource allocation, and government spending. On the social front, the social capital formation through education and good governance.


To face the challenges ahead, education and proper health services have to be on top of the priorities. Indonesian government and business sector need to be innovative, especially the latter in discovering overall services needs and older group needs.

Source:
CSIS